Wood vs Marmol

Editors Note: The majority of this was written prior to the appearance of both in the May 27th gave vs. Dodgers.

The debate started even before Sunday’s game. Should Kerry Wood really be the closer for the Chicago Cubs? Carlos Marmol who has been electric this year and many of the Cub faithful are clamoring for him to be given the chance to close. Well, he was given the chance Sunday, and he didn’t come through. His blown save appeared to rest more on the shoulders of Soriano than himself. I disagree. Marmol allowed a walk to Freddy Sanchez that put his fate into Soriano’s defense. He has no one to blame but himself. Then on Monday Kerry came back in and picked up a save in which, while not dominant, was impressive.

Woody has blown saves most often by hitting the lead off man. He has set the table for his own defeat, much like Marmol did Sunday. Marmol almost saved himself by inducing a Nate McLouth pop up. Kerry tends to give up true shots…mostly to Ryan Braun…once he allows a runner. Regardless, the key is that our closers cannot allow base runners with walks and hit batsmen.

So let’s take a closer look at the bullpen situation for the north side team, specifically Kerry and Carlos.

Durability
Woody has been used 24 times, Marmol 25 times. Carlos typically gets a little more work per game, totaling 32 innings this year to Kerry’s 26 2/3. That may be the key to the argument right there. While Kerry has gone longer than one inning twice, Carlos has done that nine times. He is physically more geared to get the Cubs through middle relief stretch than Kerry. If we save Marmol as our closer, are we going to bring him in to pitch in the eighth? If not, then we need another pitcher for the seventh, Woody for the eighth, then Marmol.
Advantage: Marmol

Strikeouts
Carlos has a higher strikeout rate, getting K’s on 39% of the batters he faced while Kerry is at 26%. That would be an argument for Carlos to be the shut down ninth inning pitcher. The margin narrows when we look at the ratio of strikeouts to innings pitched, but still favors Marmol who is over 1.4:1, while Wood is just slightly over 1:1
Advantage: Marmol

Free Passes
Kerry has beaned five hitters this year and walked five more. Carlos has hit only two batters, but walked ten. Broken down to innings pitched and this stat is a dead heat with each allowing .375 free passes per inning pitched. Kerry gets the bad wrap because of the hit batters leading off the ninth that resulted in blown saves. Carlos had the same misfortune in Pittsburgh, but all the media attention was on Soriano’s drop, not the one out walk.
Advantage: Neutral

Opponents Batting
Both are doing well in this stat, keeping opponents under the Mendoza line. Marmol has the better numbers with opposing hitters batting only .123 against him. Woody isn’t bad at .185.

From a power standpoint, each has allowed a meaningless home run. Marmol has also allowed a game winner. (Side note, against Pittsburgh the decision is easier. Pitch Marmol in any inning Nate McLouth doesn’t bat. He has the only two dingers off Marmol this year, including the game winner.) But Kerry has given up more extra base hits, 6 to 5, than Carlos. That results in a higher slugging percentage against Wood.

However, Kerry elicits more ground ball outs than Marmol. Ignoring strikeouts, because we have them in a separate category, Kerry is getting more effective outs when the ball is put in play. 40% of the balls in play against Woody are ground ball outs. Only 30% of the balls in play against Carlos are ground ball outs.
Advantage: Marmol

So if I have to decide, as Jim Hendry, whether I want Marmol or Wood as my closer, I take Marmol. He is putting up better numbers and is more dominant. But, the decision isn’t between them in a draft. With both on the team, making the decision as Lou Piniella, I continue to use them in this fashion. Marmol goes first due to his durability. He can get us out of the seventh and eighth, with Wood pitching the ninth.