Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Ryan Dempster and Run Support

There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics.....Benjamin Disraeli

Statistics lie…especially in baseball. During Sunday's game, ESPN showed the statistic that Jason Marquis has the league's best run support. Ryan Dempster is second according to them. Recognizing some of the poor offensive showings the Cubs have given Dempster, I found that hard to believe.

Then Monday night, the Cubs...these same Cubs who give massive run support to Ryan Dempster...committed two errors in three innings. That hangs the loss on Dempster even though he threw six innings, gave up no earned runs, and allowed only four hits and one walk while striking out seven. That should be the line for a winning pitcher every time.

Let's take a closer look at the run support statistic. When ESPN reported that both Marquis and Dempster had run support above 9, I perceive they think neither is a great pitcher. You may remember, I wasn't a fan of Marquis last night, so let's concentrate on Dempster.

Run Support 6 0 7 10 2 13
Earned Runs Allowed 1 0 4 3 2 3
Decision W ND W W ND W

Do you see where the statistic lies? An AVERAGE of 9 runs per game seems like he would be 6-0. Instead, because of the two games where they really piled on, and two games where they couldn’t score, he is only 4-0. A consistent run support of five runs per game would have made him 6-0.

So now the pitcher with the second highest Run Support in the league is 4-1 in seven appearances with a 2.72 ERA. Statistics lie.

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