Season Review - Half Way Home

This is your Chicago Cubs at the halfway point of the 2008 campaign.

¨ 49-32
¨ First place - Central Division
¨ Best record in the NL
¨ On pace for 98 wins.

This has been a year marked by streaks. The team has been hot and not so hot at different points this year. Currently, not so hot is an understatement.

But let's look closer at this erratic play in the context of the overall record. 49-32 is a .605 winning percentage. How does their streakiness compare to what is a pennant clinching winning percentage.

Right now the focus is on the losing streak. Going back to the series against the Rays, we are losers of 4 of the last 11. That includes our third home series loss, and it has Cub fans moaning.

But remember, we have three winning streaks of five games or greater this year…5, 6, and 9 games. As for losing streaks, we have only lost three in a row twice now in the first half of the season. Breakdown the Cub season into their streaks, and you find the following.

6-5 to start the season

9-1 streak in mid April

4-9 losing record carrying into May

9-2 in mid May

1-4 on a May road trip

16-4 once they got back home and got on a roll carrying them into June

4-7 here lately

The three big winning streaks have a 34-7 record. The losing streaks have a combined record of 9-20. When winning they play at a .829 clip. The losing streaks they play at .310.

That means the remainder of the season...those times between streaks....the Cubs are playing .545 ball. The numbers are still small for a sample size, especially because of the number of streaks. The “in between” is really the beginning of the season.

The key is to have hot streaks better than the bad streaks, and play consistent winning baseball in between. The Cubs are accomplishing that. They are playing .224 above their total when on a hot streak, and .295 below it when they go on a bender. The real key for this team is the winning streaks are longer.

If the Cubs continue, then we just have to worry about the NL winning the All star game so the Cubs have home field advantage throughout the post season. Playing four on the road in the postseason with our road record doesn't make me comfortable.

During the All Star break, I'll give my thoughts on player performance and potential needs.